Oscar Prediction: Best Original Screenplay

this is my favorite category. i love the original stories that are written for film, and the best movies always seem to come from this category.

the nominees:

• Crash
• Good Night and Good Luck
• Match Point
• The Squid and the Whale
• Syriana

My prediction: Crash. arguably, Crash was the best film of the year. like i said when i predicted the winner for Achievement in Film Editing, when you make a movie like Crash, it's important that the interactions of the ensemble cast are not perceived as hokey by the viewer. a large part of that is on Film Editing, but most of it is on the script. and the question here is, has Paul Haggis written a story of coincidental meetings of characters that is believable? i've heard people argue that it doesn't work, but i have to disagree. the movie works because each character comes to the fray with their own built in assumptions and prejudices. their interactions are a result of those prejudices. you can thank the screenplay for that.

next: Best Supporting Actress