Oscar Prediction: Best Adapted Screenplay

i'm going to hit both of the screenplay predictions in two posts, and we'll start with the Best Adapted Screenplay.

the nominees are:

• Brokeback Mountain
• Capote
• The Constant Gardener
• A History of Violence
• Munich
  

my prediction: Brokeback Mountain. buzz does play a big part in who wins and loses in these events, and no movie on this list has more buzz than Brokeback Mountain. Even if the movie doesn't win Best Picture, the buzz generated by "the gay cowboy movie" should be enough to catapult this screenplay to the win. having Larry McMurtry as one of the screenwriters doesn't hurt either.

next: Best Original Screenplay