Oscar Prediction: Best Actor

wow. i might actually get these done by Sunday.

the nominees for Best Actor are:

• Philip Seymour Hoffman-Capote
• Terrence Howard-Hustle and Flow
• Heath Ledger-Brokeback Mountain
• Joaquin Phoenix-Walk the Line
• David Strathairn-Good Night, and Good Luck

once again, conventional wisdom says to go with Philip Seymour Hoffman. not only did he do an effective Truman Capote, but he also has a massive body of work that has yet to be recognized by the Academy. also, he has the good fortune of having played a person who actually existed, so the quality of his performance can be judge against "reality." but that may also be the downfall of his nomination, as two of his peers also were nominated for playing people who actually existed. Given that the Academy recently awarded Jamie Foxx for playing Ray Charles, the actor playing a real person vote may be split, and none of those actors may win. that's why i am picking Terrence Howard. as i said in my review of Hustle and Flow, Howard was the glue that kept the movie together. also, let's not forget that he put in a powerful performance in Crash, which is up for Best Picture. and sometimes the Academy likes to give one award for two great performances in one year. remember Jamie Foxx?

next: Best Director