Oscar Prediction: Best Supporting Actor

let's knock two of these out in one day.

the nominees:

• George Clooney-Syriana
• Matt Dillon-Crash
• Paul Giamatti-Cinderella Man
• Jake Gyllenhaal-Brokeback Mountain
• William Hurt-A History of Violence

the thing about these Academy voters is that they're human, and like most humans, they don't take criticism well. last year, the Academy voters got a lot of backlash for not nominating Paul Giamatti for Sideways. you could even say they blew it by not nominating him for American Splendor in 2004. so this year, when it's time to make good, they nominate him for his performance in Cinderella Man.

if the Academy truly were rewarding the best performance of the year, I would say that my prediction would be Matt Dillon. but time and again, they reward actors for a body of work, and not for their most recent work. for that reason, I say Paul Giamatti gets the win.

next: Best Actress